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The Mess that is California

California’s budget crisis continues.  This is a topic we’ve blogged about several times (see past posts), and given the slow rate of progress, you can expect more posts in the future.  California’s budget deficit is a mind-boggling $42 billion.  Disturbingly, as we wrote in the HS Dent Special Report Demographic Trends in Real Estate, some of California’s most productive citizens are leaving, being replaced with new immigrants that, at this stage of their lives, simply do not have the earning and spending power of those that leave.  The Wall Street Journal estimates the net number of native Californians leaving the state at 1.4 million over the past decade.  This is a bad omen for the state’s housing market.  How can we hope to see prices stabilize when potential homeowners are leaving? The same Journal article gives a damning indictment of the state’s condition:

It’s sad to watch. The Golden State — which a decade ago was the booming technology capital of the world — has been done in by two decades of chronic overspending, overregulating and a hyperprogressive tax code that exaggerates the impact on state revenues of economic boom and bust. Total state expenditures have grown to $145 billion in 2008 from $104 billion in 2003 and California now has the worst credit rating in the nation — worse even than Louisiana’s. It also has the nation’s fourth highest unemployment rate of 9.3% (after Michigan, Rhode Island and South Carolina) and the second highest home foreclosure rate (after Nevada).

Assuming California’s current budget deal passes, the state will have the highest income and sales taxes in the nation at 8.25% and 10.56%, respectively, and the sales tax figure does not include local taxes that are often added in. The state needs to cut taxes in order to encourage business formation and growth…but cutting taxes in this environment would guarantee deficits.  The state could also cut spending…but that would reduce aggregate demand at a time when it is sorely needed.There are no easy answers here.  This mess was decades in the making, and it may well take decades to fix.   

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Discussion

4 comments for “The Mess that is California”

  1. CA’s situation sounds familiar, maybe that of the US in a year or two? If so, its a preview of what’s coming on a national level. If the US bails out CA, who bails out the US? China?
    Interesting to think about.

    Posted by mkern | February 21, 2009, 8:29 am
  2. If you don’t play to win, you just spend resources and can not expect to reap the rewards of winning. Yet that is what is being taught our children.”It’s not the winning, but everybody being in the game that keeps it fair.”
    How can we ever expect to improve our current condition if we have a population that is satisfied with just being in the game?
    Lossing hurts, mistakes are costly. Play the game to win and pay the price of failure, get up and keep going. don’t be satisfied with just playing. Because one day somebody is going to turn the lights off and go home.
    Big Bill

    Posted by Big-Bill-O | March 23, 2009, 11:10 pm
  3. I am confused about statements regarding a net decline in population in california. California has always posted consistant population growth year over year except through past recessions where outflows and inflows have balanced very briefly. Have you whom beleive this never visited or spent time in California? Jobs or no jobs, it one of the best places in the world to live! I live in Orange County/Los Angeles.The weather doesn’t get any better and the activities, entertainment, dining, and lifestyle, and overall ammeneties are second to none. You cannot begin to judge what we have here unless you have spent years living here! And if you have i bet you won’t want to leave! It is the most attractive place to most people who visit which is why it will almost always grow. My grandparents moved here in the thirties because it was the best place to live during the Great Depression! Who cares about the national economy when you have sunshine, 70 degree weather most of the year, surf, great food, beautiful people and plenty to do anytime you want it!!! Why doesn’t everyone whom has been leaning on the ease of an economic boom just put your heads down and get to work!!! If everyone focused on their own economy the correct way and quit all this desire for retirement/laziness and government dependance you will be shocked at how fast the economy can grow again! If you are old and want to retire- forget it and get to work! Work at something you enjoy and get busy! My grandfather retired at 65, traveled the world, wore out his hobbies and died soon after he got depressed from lack of a purpose! Don’t get sought up on the lies of the idea of retirement, just slow down, spend less and contibute to society and feel proud about it! Retirement is a new idea that is already dead-especially if you want to feel you have value in your life! What value is a retired person who only cares about their ease and comfort, crying about thier fallen stock portfolio and reduced savings- living in fear and uncertainty? Quit trying to be lazy and find your value at any age! Life in California Rocks and the cost to live here is getting lower! What is wrong with that? Do you really think that our population will continue to delcine with all this state has to offer? If they all leave then good for me as I will just buy more of this excellent California real estate, wait for them all to figure out what they are missing, and come back only to pay me a lot more for it! This is what always happens!!!!! Now if I want to retire and be lazy, tell me a more surefire way.

    Mike Fulp, Huntington Beach, CA

    Posted by mikefulp | April 5, 2009, 1:43 pm
  4. In the above post, Mike Fulp said forget what’s going on and go out and work. That’s fine if you have a job, but the reality is many are out of work and can’t find a job. They would be working if they could. Let’s not forget that one of the symptoms of this economic crisis is unemployment.

    Other than that, I agree there are good opportunities here. For years economists complained housing costs in California were fine if you were a millionaire, but outrageously expensive for the average Joe or Jane. At long last house prices are coming down to being within sight of Earth, after being inflated by an out of control bubble, and that is a good thing for those who had the foresight and patience to wait for this great buying opportunity. What could possibly be wrong with more affordable housing? I don’t have American citizenship, but if I did then I would consider moving to the Golden State while this awesome opportunity lasts.

    Posted by Abitibidoug | April 7, 2009, 9:46 am

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