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Possibly The Best Business Model In China

We are often asked, “In light of the economic troubles we face, what is the best business line to be in?”  Of course the answer is complicated by geography, existing skill sets, available capital, etc.  However in some instances, the question is easy, even if a bit unorthodox.  China, through its own laws and regulations, has created possibly one of the best, sure-fire business models ever.  And it’s probably not one you’ve considered.  But you’d better act quickly, as others are seeing the light.

I teach our conference that we call Demographic School, where we educate people on how we came to our economic conclusions, how others approach the world of economics, and what we see on the horizon.  Last year I was teaching this conference and I came to the section on demographics in other countries.  It is always an eye opener to explain how our nation is actually one of the places in the modern, industrialized world that actually has positive population growth.  Too many of us were educated when Erlich’s book, The Population Time Bomb, was the ruling authority on where we were headed, which was over a cliff because of too many people on the planet.  He could not have been more wrong.

In places like Italy, Japan, Singapore, and a host of others, populations are actually declining rapidly.  At least, rapidly in demographic terms.  This phenomenon will create situations with dire consequences both socially and economically for these countries. 

Back to China. 

As I discussed the different situations around the world I brought up the fact that China, in order to slow population growth, instituted their one child policy around 1980, which required anyone having a second child to pay a very heavy tax (There are some exceptions).  A business that grew out of this was mobile sonograms, as Chinese want to have sons so they can support their parents and carry on the family name.  This policy has not, I repeat, HAS NOT, been lifted or lightened.  In fact the Chinese government has reiterated this policy in the last year.

Here enters the law of unintended consequences.  Due to the sex-selection of parents, the Chinese government reports that they have 32 million more boys than girls between 5 and 20 years old.  32 million.  Think about that.  In a few short years, the Chinese will have over 30 million young men for whom no wife is available.  There simply is no corresponding woman in the system, much less a woman in your area, or a woman you like, or a woman who likes you. 

So what do you do about that? This is the question I always pose, as it has no answer.  However that day last year when I was teaching the class, someone shouted out an answer - “Open gay bars!”  I should have seen it coming.

And here we are.  On 6/28 the NYT reported on the first Gay Pride week in Shanghai, complete with a hot body contest.  Apparently there is a growing gay scene in the city and it is centered in an area known as the Gay Triangle.

With 32 million more men than women in just a few short years, I’d imagine the celebrations in this area of town will only get bigger.  I’d bet a few more bars open across the country.