The HS Dent Financial Blog
Not Even “Cash for Clunkers” Could Salvage Retail Sales
The Census Bureau released the latest retail sales figures, and at first glance, they don’t look that bad. Sales were up nearly 3% over July’s numbers — implying, perhaps, that the consumer is starting to dust off his wallet and shop again (See chart below). A closer look at the report quickly extinguishes this hope.
Yes, retail sales were better month-over-month. But nearly all of this was due to the Cash for Clunkers program, which essentially paid Americans to buy a new car. Excluding auto sales, retail sales were only 1.1% better than July…and we should remember that July was a depressed month!
Year-over-year, the picture gets even gloomier (see chart below). August 2009 retails sales were sharply lower than those of August 2008, and across all kinds of businesses. Literally every NAICS code listed was negative year-over-year with the sole exception of 446: Health and Personal Care stores.
Auto sales were lower…and this in spite of the Cash for Clunkers blowout. So alas, the American consumer’s wallet remains steadfastly closed.
Charles Sizemore, CFA
Co-author of the recently-published Boom or Bust: Understanding and Profiting from a Changing Consumer Economy
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I am dumbfounded. Not one report I heard yesterday compared August sales to last year. Is everyone trying to wish into recovery?
I thought the same thing as bradeure did
but I knew the Harry Dent blog would have something. This is why I read all of his books and subscribe to the blog.
Also, thank-you for the Canadian content
I also agree with the first two posts. This is just another example of the media reporting the rose colored facts instead of reporting all the facts to put the story into the correct context. I only read two articles yesterday on this data, but neither broke it down like Mr. Sizemore.
I also felt something was missing in the released numbers! Thanks for clarifying that. But don’t forget acording to Obama and Ben- the recession is over!!!!