We came across an interesting article late yesterday: “What will signal that consumers are back? Check the spa.”

The Associated Press writes,

What used to be an afterthought, from ordering wine with dinner to jetting off on a resort vacation, still feels like a splurge. No one knows when consumers will feel financially secure enough to return to old spending patterns. But those whose livelihoods depend on it — shop owners, restaurant managers, hotel staff — will be among the first to see the shift.

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Yesterday, Dennis Gartman wrote a few words we’d like to repeat. (Yes, we know we quote him a lot in this blog, but the man does good work). Gartman said,

“Long time readers of [the Gartman Letter] know that we believe demographics drive everything. Demographic trends…trump taxation; they trump economics; they trump politics on the Left and on the Right. Simply put, demographics are triumphant, and yet few pay any heed to these tidal circumstances that colour all things else”

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Dennis Gartman had a memorable quote in today’s Gartman Letter:  ”All economic information of any importance is initially anecdotal.”  He uses random factoids as diverse as Japanese dog food sales to the rental rate for homes on the Augusta golf course during the Masters as leading indicators for bigger-pictures stories to come.  We could not agree more with Mr. Gartman.  We at HS Dent have been using anecdotes to make our basic points about the effects of demographics on the economy for years.   Harry Dent has long used sales of Harley Davidson motorcycles as an example of the “male midlife crisis” in action in his public speeches.  Likewise, “Big Joe” Clark, a board member of the HS Dent Advisors Network, has used the downfall of Interstate Bakeries (maker of the iconic Twinkie) as a powerful example in his presentations.   Read the rest of this entry »