Daily Forecast - Calling Direction/Peaks/Bottom

[james.weaver@ms.com]

My partner and I (Morgan Stanley Smith Barney) went through similiar subscription questions over a year ago until we realized that it was a mistake to rely on just one resource. As a result of the life-altering experience all of us have been through over the past year plus, we decided to reinvent our money management business and take a "top-down" approach given to clients, and Harry Dent's research is applied to the second position from the top (Geopolitical view of the world; Economic: demographic (Dent) and another subset of traditional economics (our firm and another); Technical market analysis; Investment "vetting" firm and a subset technical trading firm; WE make the final decisions). First we decided it as folley to rely on any one resource, and second, that the last part (we make final decisions) was the first change that must be made.

We pay for all of these out of our own pocket (except our own firm), which no one likes but in our viewpoint necessary in order to get unbiased insight. We concluded that there is really no one person/entity that can give a magic bullet or decision. The market is nothing but a mixing bowl of emotions, and although we believe Harry Dent's anlaysis is accurate regarding behavior (spending habits), it cannot accurately predict WHEN. The liberating moment came when we realized that it is not the information recieved-regardless of the source-but how the information is INTERPRETED and then UTILIZED. As an aside, we respect, but declined to act on any alerts received, from ANYONE.

Behavior is one aspect, but there is also some big money out there with activity that is hard to reconcile and goes beyond the emotion of the every-day investor, and it is unlikely (our belief I understand) that a given market direction will play out in a straight line and without volatility. Time will tell, of course, but from our vantage pointe, we believe Dent's research plays out and ultimately affects the market. In the interim, if one will just employ a discipline based on their own beliefs, with a mental file for the research from the likes of Harry Dent, taking money off the table incrementally on your own terms-if one thinks the market environment warrants that- will make sure that there is always cash taken from your winners and available for the next round of opportunity, or just plain to have for safety-cash is, after all, an asset class...and king!

Good health to all,

[stan67]

Why condemn Harry Dent for not accurately predicting the future?
No one can do that accurately and consistently 100% of the time.
It is your money. You make the decisions. If you lose your money,
you have no one to blame but yourselves.
Do you not remember Ronald Reagan's famous words, "Trust but Verify"?
Well, Trust Harry, but for your own money, Verify by investing only
WITH the trend, never against.
If you invest against the trend, which has been up, expect to lose.
Stan