I have been following up on your comments regarding the 'baby boomers' and noted that much of the basis of your research is on demographics. I think that's very different from the common approach to forecasting, which is based on GDP, etc.
I'm just curious.. and hope you are not offended by my question.
You were mentioning about the spending habits by these 'baby boomers' and how they purchased houses, etc, and their spending habits. While they are very much worth note taking, how about other spending groups like young adults? Maybe from 20-30 or 30-40? While older folks like baby boomers are begining to save and strain due to falling income and jobs, younger adults might be spending as much to fill up the pitholes left by the older generation. Some might not even save, and continue to splurge (on credit). While this may not be substaintive, nevertheless, the mulitpier effect posed by the younger generation will still go around and cause the economy to move; hence neglecting the 'baby boomer' effect.
2nd note: while old jobs/trades are dying, new jobs for the new economy are born. Your analogy is based on the previous economy where industrial evolution is arising in the 80s/early 90s. However, in this current economy, is it still save to make this assumption for the coming 'depression'?
That said, I must agree that the current stock market is not reflecting the current situation that is happening on the ground. Job claims and job losses are increasing. Too much money floating around (from the stimulus) for too little effect on aggreate supply/demand. I believe inflation is set to come in the current moment. But a depression in the coming year (2010)...
By your experience and knowledge, what are your views pertaining to the compenents (if any) that might impair depression? ie, what are the possible ingredients that may save this economy?
I meant well. Really hope I"m not being thought as being difficult to agree with, etc. Btw, I'm not from US. I'm from Singapore (a city state in asia).
